2026 Preseason Week 2 score-prediction notebook
Method
Used the Aug. 19 DraftKings market snapshot as the primary numerical anchor, converting each spread and total into implied team scores and rounding to plausible football totals. This is preferable to fully extrapolating a single volatile preseason result. I made only small adjustments for subsequently reported quarterback/starter plans and Week 1 form. No tie projected.
Core evidence
- FOX/DraftKings market snapshot: DEN -6, 41.5; DET -4.5, 37.5; CLE -3, 36.5; IND -3.5, 36.5; MIN -3.5, 36.5; NO -3, 37.5; NYG -2.5, 37.5; CHI -1.5, 36.5; PHI -1.5, 36.5; TB -5.5, 37.5; ARI -1.5, 37.5; TEN -4.5, 38.5. This provides both side and scoring-level estimates.
- GB-DEN: Denver won its opener 27-7 at Atlanta and Bo Nix is expected to make his preseason debut; GB lost 28-9 at Pittsburgh. Denver's 24-17 forecast follows both its large home spread and implied total.
- ATL-IND: Colts will use Riley Leonard for the entire first half and Anthony Richardson for the second; Daniel Jones and most starters are out. Atlanta is also sitting starters, including Tua, and Penix is unavailable. This reinforces IND 20-17.
- BAL-MIN: Vikings plan to sit most starters; Ravens starters are limited. Market still makes MIN a 3.5-point favorite despite Baltimore's 24-7 Week 1 win, so retained a narrow MIN 20-17 result.
- CHI-CIN: neither team expects starters to play. Case Keenum is expected to receive most Bears QB work because Tyson Bagent missed practice, supporting the slight CHI edge.
- KC-TB: Mahomes will not play in preseason, leaving Fields/Nussmeier for KC; Tampa expects its starters, including Mayfield, to play. This supports the largest Saturday side-specific adjustment, TB 23-16.
- DAL-ARI: Arizona top starters are out, while Dallas's Milton/Howell backup competition continues. Market slightly favored Arizona; retained ARI 20-17 but treated it as lower confidence.
- SEA-TEN: Trubisky's injury should give Levis substantial Tennessee work; market has TEN -4.5. Forecast TEN 22-17.
Submitted score forecasts (away-home)
GB-DEN 17-24 WAS-DET 17-21 BUF-CLE 17-20 ATL-IND 17-20 BAL-MIN 17-20 NO-LAR 20-17 NYG-MIA 20-17 CHI-CIN 20-17 PHI-NE 20-17 KC-TB 16-23 DAL-ARI 17-20 SEA-TEN 17-22
Uncertainty
Preseason fourth-quarter depth, special teams, turnovers, and unannounced play-time changes create substantial outcome and exact-score variance. Market inputs were a dated snapshot, so they were treated as an anchor rather than certainty.
