NFL Preseason Week 2 Predictions Scratchpad
Research Summary
Gathered data from ESPN, Yahoo/FanSided, Covers, TheRx, NFL.com, NBC, and team-specific sites. Confirmed:
- Week 1 results for all 24 teams (ESPN standings)
- Starter/rest decisions for all 12 games
- Betting lines (spreads, O/U, moneylines) for all games
- Expert picks from multiple sources (Covers, Big Lead, TheRx, YouTube)
Key Evidence
- ESPN game page (sr_57009da93ce907317d0fe1bb): GB-DEN pregame data — injury reports, Wk1 records (GB 0-1 9/28, DEN 1-0 27/7), 89°F at Mile High
- Big Lead betting guide (sr_e91729f7e39d4b225f808930): Detailed starter info and picks for all Sat/Sun games
- Covers moneyline picks (sr_635aedf53aa154341159e76b): Expert picks for every game
- NFL.com 10 things to watch (sr_993489092dd6162d1c603081): Storylines including Mayfield's first preseason action, McCarthy extended look
Game-by-Game Rationale
1. GB @ DEN (DEN -5.5, O/U 36.5) → GB 10, DEN 24
DEN dominant in Wk1 (27-7 vs ATL), GB awful (9-28 vs PIT). Love playing for GB but limited weapons (Jacobs questionable). Nix getting work for DEN. DEN home at Mile High, 89°F. DEN has 8-game preseason win streak. Clear DEN win.
2. WAS @ DET (DET -4.5, O/U 37.5) → WAS 13, DET 20
Goff NOT playing (confirmed). Daniels unlikely for WAS. Both teams using backups but DET has better overall depth at home. Moderate DET win.
3. BUF @ CLE (CLE -1.5, O/U 36.5) → BUF 17, CLE 20
Sanders starts first half for CLE. Allen sitting for BUF. Joint practice held — suggests starters may get limited snaps. Close game, slight CLE edge at home.
4. ATL @ IND (IND -3.5, O/U 40.5) → ATL 14, IND 24
Both resting starters. Riley Leonard starts for IND. Jack Strand for ATL. IND at home with better QB depth. IND wins comfortably.
5. BAL @ MIN (MIN -2.5, O/U 36.5) → BAL 17, MIN 20
McCarthy getting extended look for MIN. Murray not playing for BAL. Joint practices held. Close game, MIN slight edge at home.
6. NO @ LAR (NO -3, O/U 37.5) → NO 17, LAR 20 (UPSET)
Stafford sitting (McVay). Shough more work for NO. Simpson impressive for LAR in Wk1. LAR home. Big Lead and Covers both pick LAR upset. Taking the upset.
7. NYG @ MIA (NYG -3.5, O/U 36.5) → NYG 20, MIA 14
Dart at QB for NYG (good Wk1 showing). Ewers hurt for MIA, Miller/Gronowski to play. MIA weak QB depth. NYG wins on the road.
8. CHI @ CIN (CIN -1.5, O/U 40.5) → CHI 23, CIN 20 (UPSET)
CHI scored 34 in Wk1 (dominant). CIN starters SIT (Taylor confirmed). ESPN articles suggest Caleb Williams may play for CHI. CIN home but sitting starters. Taking CHI upset based on strong Wk1 and CIN resting starters.
9. PHI @ NE (PHI -3.5, O/U 36.5) → PHI 17, NE 13
Neither Hurts nor Maye playing. McKee/Dalton for PHI, DeVito/Morton for NE. NE home but scored 0 in Wk1, PHI scored 7. Following market — PHI wins.
10. KC @ TB (TB -5.5, O/U 36.5) → KC 10, TB 24
Mayfield plays for TB (first preseason under Bowles). Mahomes out for KC. Fields/Nussmeier for KC. TB home. Clear TB win.
11. DAL @ ARI (ARI -1.5, O/U 37.5) → DAL 17, ARI 20
Dak sitting for DAL, Milton/Howell compete. Love OUT for ARI (ankle). Brissett/Minshew for ARI. ARI home. Big Lead picks ARI. Close ARI win.
12. SEA @ TEN (TEN -4.5, O/U 38.5) → SEA 14, TEN 24
Ward struggled Wk1, Levis getting heavy work. Lock/Milroe for SEA, Darnold limited. TEN home. TEN wins comfortably.
Assumptions
- Preseason games are highly unpredictable with backup-heavy rosters
- Used O/U lines and spreads as primary anchors for scoring totals
- Home field advantage is slight in preseason
- Two upset picks: LAR over NO at home, CHI over CIN on the road
- Most totals lean under given backup-heavy preseason play
