I've got a good two-source comparison now, so I'm averaging RotoBaller and FFToday rankings to build a blended board, noting FFToday is cooler on top WRs but higher on Jeanty and Love. I'm working through the RB values: Gibbs at 335, Bijan at 330, CMC at 318, Taylor at 289, and Cook next.
Now I'm blending the rest of the RB pool down through Monangai, then moving into WRs where Nacua leads at 286, followed by JSN, Chase, and ARSB, with the blend continuing through McConkey, Wilson, and into Egbuka's numbers.
Continuing through the WR list from Egbuka down through McMillan, Odunze, McLaurin, and CTate, then shifting to TEs where Bowers and McBride lead, and starting a formula-based calculation for Warren's blended value.
Now I'm working through the rest of the tight end tier — Loveland, Fannin, Kittle, Kraft, LaPorta, Pitts, Goedert, and Kincaid — applying the same weighted formula combining projections with recent averages to land on adjusted values for each.
Moving to quarterbacks now, I'm blending season projections with recent performance for Allen, Hurts, Daniels, and Maye, and I'm about to do the same for Lamar.
Continuing down the QB list — Burrow, Dak, Caleb Williams, Dart, Nix, Goff, Purdy, Herbert, Mayfield, and Stafford — I'm computing each blended projection. This gives me Allen as clear QB1 at 377 with a 49-point gap to QB2, and roughly a 77-point VOR advantage over the QB13 baseline around 300, which is a key number for setting draft value. With 12-team standard starting requirements (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX), I'm noting the flex spots are mostly going to be filled by...
Now I'm computing replacement-level baselines: RB around 172, WR around 150, TE around 130, QB around 300, and using those to figure VOR for the pick-8 options — Cook at +98, ARSB at +107, Jefferson at +83, Achane at +77, Henry at +92, Lamb at +76, Barkley at +79, and Walker at +76. This makes ARSB the top value at pick 8, ahead of Cook and Henry, since the WR replacement level came out lower than my earlier estimate.
But I want to check what's left nine picks later at 17 — RB talent falls off a cliff after the top eleven backs, dropping about 20 points into names like Jeanty, Kyren, Hall, Javonte, and Love, while WR at that point still has a tight cluster of solid options like London, Collins, Pickens, Flowers, Olave, Rice, and AJ Brown all bunched closely together.
Comparing pairs: grabbing an elite RB at 8 and settling for a mid-tier RB at 17 nets around 503 combined, versus taking an elite WR now and hoping for a top RB at 17, which nets around 476. The RB-first path wins because the WR pool at 17 stays flat and deep, while the RB pool drops much less steeply than expected from that top tier.
Looking at VOR, the RB-first strategy still edges out ahead. But if a truly elite talent like Nacua, Chase, or JSN somehow falls to pick 8, their VOR would blow past any RB, so they'd jump to the top of the priority list, followed by the elite RB tier, then the next-best RB options.
Ranking the full VOR board, the top 7 players are likely gone before pick 8, so realistically ARSB is my pick there unless there's a surprise slide. For pick 17, I'm now thinking through who's likely to remain available.
Confirming TE13 baseline ~130 with 12 teams starting 1 TE plus flex, so Bowers' +73 VOR at pick 32 is elite value, essentially like landing a mid-second-round talent. Now I'm second-guessing that baseline given the steep drop-off after the top TEs.
At 41, if Bowers is gone I'd weigh McBride despite his bye landing on semifinal week — losing a starter for one of two semifinal weeks is manageable if I grab a cheap TE2 like Fannin or Pitts around picks 84-90 to cover that gap, since McBride's +68 value is still too strong to pass up.
Kicker is negligible for differentiation, so I'll just grab one late around pick 161-176. With no DST available in this league, my roster math actually gives me an extra bench slot since that position can't be filled — a real edge unless DST gets backfilled in later.
since 12 teams need one K each, only 12 gets drafted early, so I'll be safe waiting until 161-176 for a kicker, using the earlier pick on a real player.
Now double-checking Josh Allen's value - his VOR is comparable to Bowers at pick 32, and his ADP around 33-34 means he might slip to me there anyway, so I'm weighing which to prioritize.
If I dream big, I could land Allen at 32 and Bowers or McBride at 41, giving me elite value at both QB and TE - though that pushes my RB2/WR2 needs to pick 56 and beyond, where the RB and WR options drop noticeably in VOR compared to what's available at 32 like Etienne or Kyren Williams.
Running the numbers though, that delay costs roughly 20 points per position deferred, so about 40 points total across two picks. But the gains from securing Allen over a replacement-level QB and Bowers over a lesser TE option are much larger, around 113 points combined. That math clearly favors grabbing Allen and an elite TE early and backfilling RB/WR from 56 on, so I'm settling on that as my plan. I want to sanity-check the QB replacement value though, thinking through where the QB13 tier falls among the blended rankings.
RotoBaller also has Allen at 388 vs FFToday's 366, both flagging him as a clear outlier. Lamar's ADP around 56 makes him a cheap QB2-tier grab with roughly a wash value versus taking a WR there. Turning to Jeremiyah Love, the blended projections put him around RB7 territory across sources.
Love's ADP sits around pick 30-36, giving him solid VOR at 32 though less than Allen or Bowers, so he's a fine fallback near pick 41 — but I need to watch his bye week and Arizona matchup overlap if I'm also drafting McBride. For roster construction, I'm mapping out picks 8, 17, and 32, weighing whether to grab Allen or Bowers first and hope the other survives to pick 41, factoring in their ADPs to gauge the risk.
Given Allen's ADP (33.3) versus Bowers' (42.9), Allen is much more likely to be gone by 41, so I'd take Allen at 32 and gamble on Bowers surviving to 41 — though editorial rankings suggest Bowers could go earlier too. Estimating roughly 35% odds Bowers is still there at 41 versus only 15% for Allen, the expected value favors taking Allen now and hoping for Bowers or a fallback like McBride or Loveland later.
So my plan: at 32, grab Allen if available; at 41, take Bowers or McBride if available, otherwise the best RB/WR, with Loveland or Warren as TE fallback around picks 56-65. If Allen's already gone at 32, pivot to Bowers or McBride there instead and wait on QB until picks 80-89.
Before locking anything in, I want to double-check the news on my key targets—Achane, Barkley, Hampton, Chase Brown, Bowers, and Allen—to make sure none of them have injury or exempt-list issues I'm missing. I have plenty of budget left, so I'll run a couple more news searches before saving my plan.
